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One of the most striking phenomena of the last 20-25 years is the increased trade between countries. Indeed, the volume of trade has increased magazine25 by about 3.5 during this period (+240%). While international trade is an important component of global economic growth, it is necessary to look at its evolution since 1991 in a context of economic globalization greatly impact trade policies and where the dynamics of trade slows.
Six main phases characterize magazine25 the evolution of world trade since 1991 Firstly, global trade rises sharply in 1994 (+11%) after several years of relative stagnation. The increase was primarily due to an economic recovery in Europe after 1993 particularly bad. This increase is entering a period of five years (1994-1998) during which international trade will greatly increase (+7% / year on average), thanks to the lower costs of communication and transportation, as well as the liberalization trade in the WTO (World Trade Organization), which was established in 1995. To this should be added the amplification of the phenomenon of relocation conducted by multinationals from developed countries to emerging countries, and the proliferation of mergers and acquisitions between the two shores of the Atlantic. In 1998, the crisis in emerging magazine25 countries (particularly in Asia) leads out of the dynamics of trade. Indeed, the output of capital (among others) of these countries will plunge into a violent recession. Several emerging countries will then evolve their business strategy to become mercantile and accumulate currency and to cope with this type of situation. Then, in 2000 and 2001, respectively involved the crisis of the Internet bubble and the integration of China into the WTO, which marks the beginning of a new era of international magazine25 trade. Indeed, magazine25 at the same time, emerging countries develop their particular strategy based on the low cost of labor to attract multinationals to produce in their country and then re-export all or part of this production magazine25 in the country industrialized countries (Europe and USA in the lead). magazine25 Therefore, the value chains (all steps required to manufacture a product) lengthen, fragment and complex, thus requiring the intervention magazine25 components because more intermediate and increased trade between countries the same product several times pass borders. In accounting terms, this increases the numbers magazine25 of foreign trade increased by nearly 70% between 2000 and 2007. Crisis of 2008-2009 has then net stop this dynamic magazine25 with a sudden collapse of international trade. Finally, the resumption of trade is part of a global economic recovery relative. Confirmation of the economic emergence of China and several other countries will cause acceleration magazine25 in labor costs in these countries. Combined with the affirmation of their upscale (higher quality and complexity magazine25 of manufactured products), this has the effect of reducing imports value-added of these countries. Therefore, production tends to focus on large land areas, which shortens the value chains and partly explains the slowdown in trade in recent years.
To go further Sylvain Fontan, "Trade policies in a global context", Economic Bulletin published on "leconomiste.eu" the 02.03.2013. Sylvain Fontan, "The WTO after the Bali agreement" analysis published on "leconomiste.eu" on 11.02.2014.
Sylvain Fontan is independent economist and creator of the site www.leconomiste.eu. It offers affordable deciphered, weekly economic bulletins subscription for individuals or ent