Read the notes to believe in life; each by chance. All; inevitable fate begins. This world is great, people will be able destined to meet, if not meet in the world, will meet in the article. Collection difficult, can see things difficult; reading difficult, can read embarrassed; reading difficult, can be difficult. Just days reading; Sophie day reading history; anger write bamboo, orchid write festivity. Reading; is a habit. Life; is an attitude. Success browhaus and failure;; attitude determines altitude in life. Reading; not lived in vain. Life; worthwhile trip. Choose what kind of friends, you choose what kind of life. The book was published, Yaogao, lectures or courses offer, please contact: johnson_kuo@pchome.com.tw.
Snow reading: Naseem. Nicholas. Taleb "anti-fragility" Title: "Anti-fragility: the opposite of vulnerability is not strong, anti-fragility" Author: Nassim. Nicholas. Taleb (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) is committed to research browhaus uncertainty, probability and knowledge of the problem. MBA from the Wharton School browhaus has (Wharton School) browhaus and the University of Paris (University of Paris) PhD. He metering roll and when traders in the mall about two decades, after two years to become a full-time OO philosophical essayist and academic researchers. Author of "random rich trap" (Fooled by Randomness) and "The Black Swan" (The Black Swan), the latter entrenched "New York Times" (The New York Times), and other major bestseller list for years, browhaus seems to have become a cultural industry A touchstone social circle, browhaus intellectual. "Black Swan Quotations" (The Bed of Procrustes) is the author of the witty sayings police revealed the most accurate predictions. "Anti-fragility" (The Antifragile) is the black swan world captive browhaus great revolutionary forces Ultimate Guide (Traditional Chinese version of the above book by Locus Publishing). Taleb is undoubtedly the world's most sought-after thinkers. Although most of the time left the world alone, obsessed with books piled up, or as contemplative as the Wanderer in the coffee shop, but it is New York University Institute of Technology Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering. His research browhaus topic is "opaque decision-making under" that is, draw a map and write a plan on how we should live in a thorough understanding of the world can not. Translator: Hilton Law of Taiwan Department of Industrial Engineering, National Chengchi University Graduate Institute of Business Administration graduate, doctoral candidate browhaus Central University Department of Business Administration. Former "Economic browhaus Daily" foreign news group director, Universe browhaus Publishing editor. Book "Google: Google successful seven lesson" by the ROC Ministry of Economic browhaus Affairs ninety-four annual Golden Book Award. The other with a "second wave of Internet entrepreneurs: Google, eBay, Yahoo landmark prosperous society." Translated numerous. Times Publishing browhaus Company won two OO 2002 "Platinum translator" award. Currently the finance, business, IT professional freedom writers, "Harvard Business Review" Global Chinese version of freelance translators, Industrial Technology Research Institute, "Industry browhaus and Information Technology magazine" freelance translator. Introduction: What does not kill me, makes me stronger. Since black swan events can not be avoided, then think of ways to derive maximum benefit "The Black Swan" Author latest masterpiece every thing will get benefits from fluctuations or bear the loss. Vulnerability refers to the volatility and uncertainty because sustain a total loss. Anti vulnerability is to allow yourself to avoid these losses, or even make a profit. Nietzsche's famous browhaus quote: "What does not kill me, makes me stronger." Like the bones to withstand stress and tension will become stronger, rumors or riots will intensify browhaus when someone tried to suppress browhaus them, a lot of things in life will benefit from the stress, confusion, volatility and turbulence. "The Black Swan" Taleb find that kind of thing so-called "anti-fragility", not only to benefit from the chaos, we also need to stress and crises occur in a timely manner, in order to survive and prosper.
Why is this the world's most stable countries in fact, no government? Why debt is bad for you, and why we generally say "efficiency" fundamental browhaus lack of efficiency? Why is the government's response and the protection of the strong browhaus social policies, but hurt the weak? Why do not you even before the inauguration, they should write a letter of resignation? Titanic sank why save more lives? This book is talking about trial and error method, determined by the size of life, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, the economy and health care system ...... unique style. "Anti-fragility" browhaus is living in the uncertain world of the blueprint, but also face the possibility of the emergence of a black swan event the ultimate self-protection practices. Contents: Preface The first chapter book summaries and maps anti-fragility: Introduction 2 Damocles every place between 1 and Hydra has overcompensation and overreaction 3 4 killed my cat with a washing machine, making others more powerful browhaus anti-fragility Not just tough (resilience) or strong (robustness) only. Tough can resist shock, maintaining the status quo; anti fragile perform better. Any change browhaus with the times things like evolution, browhaus culture, ideas, revolution, political system, technological innovation, cultural and economic success, business survival, browhaus gourmet recipes (such as chicken soup, or add a drop of cognac [Cognac] The steak tartare) , the city's rise, the legal system, equatorial rainforests, bacterial resistance ...... and so on, all have this trait. Even our existence as a species is the same planet. Anti alive determines fragility organic (or esoteric system, such as a human body) and rendered inert thing (e.g., table objects such as staplers), the difference between the two.
Just lying in bed one month (the best there is not deleted the word "War and Peace", and a total of eighty-six episodes of "The Sopranos" [The Sopranos] album to be seen), it will lead to muscle atrophy, esoteric browhaus systems ( complex systems) also because of less stress factor and debilitating, and even death. Modern, structured there are many places in the world, because top-down policies and wacky new invention (the book called the Soviet Union - Harvard browhaus Soviet-Harvard delusions delusions []) to make such a thing, which is to attack the system Anti vulnerability and hurt us.
Sacrifice the interests of others in order to obtain the file so this brings us to the biggest social vulnerability factors, browhaus but also the largest producer of crisis, and that is the lack of "vital interests." Someone from the volatility changes, confusion obtain the file of interest (or profits), and to others browhaus exposed to the downside risk of loss or damage being among them, at the expense of others and become anti-fragile. Vulnerability to the expense of someone else made this anti vulnerability is invisible - the Soviet Union - Harvard Knowledge Circle see anti-fragility, so this asymmetry is rarely found, but (so far) no people to teach it. In addition, we found that during the financial crisis since the Second 2008, as a modern mechanism and the increasing complexity of Political Affairs, to let others bear the risk of explosion and this approach is easy to conceal. Only in the past people would be exposed to the risk of high position. They must bear the downside losses take action themselves. The so-called hero, for others, those who can afford to lose the next file. Today, the situation is just the opposite. We saw the rise of the anti-hero of this new class: they are bureaucrats, bankers, or only know through someone else's fame to pretentious attend Davos (Davos) meeting people; and academics hold too much power, but it does not have to bear real downside loss or liability. They play manipulation systems, but the consideration paid by the average citizen. Never seen so many people who are not exposed to the history, that is, individuals are not exposed to danger, but it can exert so much control force. The primary ethical guidelines we should follow is: you should not be at the expense of vulnerable people, and made anti-fragility. browhaus
Third, the "Black Swan" antidote I want to understand in their own world live very happily. "Black Swan" (Black Swans) is the consequence of large, unpredictable and irregular but significant events - refers to a specific observer unpredictable events, and if the person can not be predicted because of the occurrence of these events was shocked, and by injury, often called "turkey." As I said, most of human history from the "black swan" event, but worries about fine-tuning the understanding of ordinary events, and the development of various models, theories or expressions, but it is impossible to trace them, or to measure the likelihood of occurrence of these shocking .
"Black Swan" kidnapped our brains, so we thought, "less" or "almost" be able to predict them because hindsight, can explain them. Because of this misconception predictable, so we do not understand these "Swan" plays a role in life. Life than we remembered but also intricate maze - our mind busy historical turn into something smooth and linear, browhaus with the result that we have underestimated the randomness. But when we see random events, they feel fear and overreaction. Because of this fear and longing order to establish some system of human destruction of the intangible things browhaus or not so tangible logic, the result is likely to expose the "Black Swan" the harm being, and almost never get any benefit from them. Are you looking for order, but get a false order; hug random, to get some order and condition.
Artificial esoteric systems often lead like a waterfall pouring down and out of control of the chain reaction, which will reduce or even eliminate predictability, and create a large event. Therefore, the technical knowledge of the modern world may be increasing, but to say contradictory things browhaus develop but unpredictable than ever before. Due to increase in man-made systems, from the ancestors and nature of the model, as well as each design is very complicated thing, and lose robustness, making a variety of reasons, "Black Swan" role of growing. In addition, we became a victim of the new disease. The book will be addicted to a new disease called mad (neomania). Because browhaus of this disease, browhaus we are vulnerable to establish a "black swan" damage system - they call it "progress."
Nature is not just strong enough strong "safe." It is destroyed and replaced by a more positive selection and recombination. Speaking of random events, "strong" is certainly not good enough. In the long term, due to the relentless time, not even the most fragile things, also destroyed - but the Earth may have been the presence browhaus of four billion browhaus years, we believe that only strong, definitely not enough browhaus to do: You need the perfect robustness , a crack will not evolve into the final ruin of the entire system. Due to the robustness of hard to get perfect - we need a mechanism to allow the system to use a random event, browhaus unpredictable shock, stress factors and volatility, continuous self-regeneration, rather than hurt by them.
In the long term, anti-fragility can benefit browhaus from the prediction error. browhaus You just follow this idea came at the end, benefit from the randomness of a lot of things will dominate today's world should be - what harm should disappear. browhaus Uh, in hindsight it is. We have a misconception that the world is in accordance with the planned design, research done by the University of bureaucracy and funding set aside in the operation, but there are compelling - very convincing browhaus - evidence that this is an illusion. I call this illusion called to teach the bird how to fly. Technology is exposed browhaus person to repair and trial and error in the form of anti-fragility using the results obtained, but only nerds do stand to share design background. Engineers and repair their efforts to develop browhaus something, browhaus but history is written by scholars; we have made the necessary amendments to interpret the history of growth, innovation, and many of these things.
Tan (some) things can measure fairly easy to measure browhaus vulnerability browhaus and risk, but that is not easy to measure, particularly the risk and rare event. I said, we were able to estimate, or even measure the (anti-) vulnerability, but no matter how much we mature, sophisticated, they can not calculate the risk and the probability of shock and rare events. browhaus We perform risk management, is studying the possibility of future events is one thing, but only a few economists and other mental disorders who would violate the experience, claiming that they were able likelihood of these rare events occur in the future, "measure." Some suckers regardless of past experience and past record of these claims come true, they do not believe the suspect. But the vulnerability and fragility is an anti-object, a coffee table, a company, browhaus a part of an industry, a country and a political system currently browhaus traits. We can perceive vulnerability, see it, even on many occasions to measure it, or at least a measure of relative vulnerability, the error is very small, but relatively risk (so far) are not reliable. You can not reliably say quite a rare event or shock, events or shocking than another is more likely to occur rarely occurs (unless you like self-deception), but you can be much higher confidence said that once a piece of happens, an object or a structure is more vulnerable than other objects or structures. You can easily said that rapid changes in temperature grandmother face than your fragile political change in the face of a military dictator fragile than the Swiss banks face the crisis than other sectors vulnerable or ill-structured modern building facing the earthquake Bishateer Cathedral ( Cathedral of Chartres) vulnerable. You can even predict what those will exist a long time, and this is our central proposition.
Pushing Hands prone fragile Soviet - Harvard delusions, (with unscientific attitude) overestimated the tentacles of scientific knowledge. Because of this delusion, he became the so-called naive rationalist, rationalization, sometimes it is just a rationalist, meaning that he believes he will naturally understand the reason behind all kinds of things. In addition, we should not confuse the rationalization and rational - both almost exactly the opposite. browhaus In addition to physics, usually in the esoteric field, for various browhaus reasons behind the things we tend not to see them so clearly, and even fragile pushing hands to see more clearly. However, things browhaus are not the natural qualities of self-promotion in the user manual does not constitute a great obstacle: Some vulnerabilities push hands came together, with their definition of "science", write the user manual.
Simply browhaus put, the fragile browhaus Pushing Hands (medical, economic, social planners) will encourage you to participate in political affairs and to take all the man-made actions. The benefits do these things are small, but visible, but the side effects can be very serious and invisible. Medically fragile excessive intervention is always pushing hands, denying the body's natural ability to heal, to open for you to eat the medicine may have very serious side effects; browhaus policy fragile Pushing Hands (who plan to pursue social intervention doctrine) mistakenly economy as a washing machine that needs he constantly shot to the mix; mental fragility pushing hands with medication the child to "improve" their intellectual and emotional life; soccer mom fragile Pushing Hands (translation: soccer browhaus mom refers drove the children browhaus to play soccer and watch the side of the mother) ; financial fragility promoter wants everyone to use the "risk" model, the results of the destruction of the banking system (and then use them again); military vulnerability promoter interference esoteric system; predict brittle
